This article is taken from the "Impact" section of the December 2024 issue of Omalius magazine.

On the night of January 31, 1953, the North Sea suddenly rose by almost four meters, submerging parts of the Netherlands and Belgium. The disaster caused the death of over 2,500 people, as well as considerable damage. According to Anna Kiriliouk, lecturer in statistics at UNamur's Department of Mathematics and EMCP Faculty, this exceptional event truly marked "the beginning of the development of extreme value theory, with the development of the first extreme value construction project"

The Delta Plan, as it is called, is a system of dikes that protects the Netherlands against the risk of flooding, with these dikes overtopping once every 10,000 years. A rare danger, certainly, but not zero, which "could not have been calculated using conventional statistics, which are very poorly adapted to rare events", believes the mathematician.

While climate change is often discussed in terms of averages, such as rising temperatures and sea levels, it also has the consequence of increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, with significant repercussions for our societies. "In other words, the risk increases along with the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere", summarizes the researcher. "Thus, a flood calculated in 1953 to occur only every 10,000 years does not have the same significance as today. The latter could happen more frequently, for example every 1,000 years."

While extreme weather events are on the increase, it's difficult in practice to attribute any particular flood or drought to climate change. With this in mind, Anna Kiriliouk has just been awarded an interdisciplinary research project,named EXALT, in collaboration with UCLouvain. "It involves both climatologists and statisticians, she reveals.

In practice, the EXALT project will therefore calculate the probabilities of an extreme event occurring, and compare this probability with that of the same situation in a world where GHG emissions would not have increased. "Of course, we don't have real data from such a world", says Anna Kiriliouk. "We are therefore basing ourselves on alternative climate simulations, the quality of which we will moreover compare, with a focus on extreme events."

Divided into three working groups, the EXALT project will seek in particular to determine the role of climate change in the occurrence of floods, as well as heat waves and drought in Europe. And to do so as realistically as possible: "One of the things we want to incorporate into climate models concerns the dependency between data," explains Anna Kiriliouk. "For example, if a heat wave hits Namur, there's a good chance that the same temperatures will affect Louvain-La-Neuve. We therefore say that there is a strong spatial dependency between these two data. However, this dependence is probably not at all valid for rain, which is much more heterogeneous. By taking into account all these variables, both spatial and temporal, we hope to improve existing models."

A third working group will study much more distant areas, located in Antarctica. "Until 2016, the extent of the Antarctic ice pack was increasing, before abruptly decreasing", the researcher illuminates. "Or, according to the models, this event was considered almost impossible. But with one of EXALT's partners, we began to analyze the evolution of pack ice extent using extreme value theory. With the latter, this sudden drop was no longer so improbable. This gave us confidence in our approach, which is all the more important when the state of the pack ice has such a strong influence on other climate variables."

This interaction between several climatic processes is, moreover, the subject of a second project just obtained by Anna Kiriliouk and funded by an FNRS Mandat d'Impulsion Scientifique. "The aim is to make it possible to study what we call compound events", explains the researcher. "During extreme climatic situations, we usually associate very high or low values simultaneously, such as a lack of rain and high temperature, resulting in an intense drought. But in the case of compound phenomena, we find that the combination of several variables, albeit in a moderate state, results in a severe and unusual event."

In 2017, for example, Hurricane Sandy, which struck the US coastline, is considered a compound event. While North Atlantic hurricanes usually dissipate in mid-ocean, this one coincided with onshore winds and a high tide, leading to massive flooding of New York and the surrounding area.

"In this project, we will therefore try to include more flexibility between the different variables, by introducing different degrees of dependence, the mathematician elaborates. "We're also going to try, as a second step, to group the dependencies together, in order to lighten the models, which become more and more complex as we add nuances to them. And once these models have been modified, we'll apply them to recent events to test their realism."

"For 5 years, I'll be part of the Collegium of the Royal Academy of Belgium, and also of the "Technology and Society" class. My participation will enable me to contribute my vision and interdisciplinary expertise on digital transformation. During this mandate, I will be able to participate in the Academy's various work concerning its knowledge dissemination events such as its colloquia or scientific valorization (prizes, competitions, grants)", explains Anthony Simonofski.

One of the missions he hopes to accomplish as part of his mandate is to exchange on digital issues through an interdisciplinary approach. "Today's digital challenges require an interdisciplinary approach, combining IT, managerial, legal, sociological perspectives and much more. The 'Technology and Society' class will enable these exchanges to elaborate constructive reflections for a harmonious integration of digital in our society," he emphasizes. He will also make his expertise in digital transformation available. "It presents a whole series of new challenges such as inclusion, adoption or the necessary participation of citizens. So I'd like to make my research in this area available, and perhaps even encourage the Academy itself to enter into a more participatory approach towards citizens via digital channels," Anthony Simonofski points out.

Author of the podcast "Pop-Code" about digital education, which he is producing with his colleague Benoit Vanderose (Faculté informatique- UNamur), Anthony SIMONOFSKI also defends the concept of art as a vehicle for popularizing science. "At the Collegium, I want to work to make digital research accessible and engaging, by initiating collaborative projects that combine scientific rigor and artistic innovation to reach a wider and more diverse audience." Finally, by becoming a member of the Collegium, Anthony Simonofski will ensure representation of UNamur's expertise on digital, notably by relaying the interdisciplinary vision of the Namur Digital Institute and the EMCP Faculty.

Incidentally, I also hope to represent UNamur there," Olivier Sartenaer points out. "Integrating the Collegium is a nice recognition of my work. Secondly, it will enable me to meet a lot of interesting people and, together, to cross-fertilize our expertise to reflect on major societal issues at our monthly sessions. I'll be able to present and discuss my work, and also discover the work of Belgian scientific colleagues. Finally, it will enable me to take advantage of some of the Academy's support (access to premises, publications, networks, etc.) to organize events, or disseminate my work".

Nitin Bharti is currently a postdoctoral researcher in the Economics Program of the Division of Social Sciences at New York University Abu Dhabi. He is also coordinator of the World Inequality Lab for South and Southeast Asia. He received his PhD in economics from the Paris School of Economics (PSE) and the University of Namur in September 2022 under the supervision of his promoters, Thomas Piketty (PSE) and Guilhem Cassan (UNamur).

His doctoral thesis at UNamur studied different dimensions of inequality in India:

• Inequality of access to education (covered by the article in the Economist),
• Inequality of income and wealth,
• Inequality of treatment in the face of justice.

For each of these projects, he conducted extraordinary data collection work, searching for new data in historical archives, or using new website data-mining methods to collect large-scale contemporary administrative data. He then exploited this data via cutting-edge econometric methods.

More about Dr Nitin Bharti

These topics are also at the heart of the themes developed at UNamur, for both teaching and research.

In fact, the DeFiPP Institute has recognized expertise in development economics and environmental economics. Its researchers are very active internationally. Some of DeFiPP's members, for example, have Jim Robinson, Nobel Prize 2024 for his research on the role of institutions in economic development, as a co-author on their articles.

These issues are also at the heart of many of the Economics Department's courses, at both bachelor and master levels. The Department of Economics is keen to offer its students an education that enables them to gain a better understanding of major contemporary societal issues. The Department also has a very long tradition of teaching issues related to the management of environmental resources, inequalities and sustainable development in general.

At the beginning of the 20th century, less than 10% of Indian and Chinese children attended school; today, almost all do. But the path to universal education has been remarkably different, and has had profound effects on the development of both countries' economies.

This article is taken from the "Alumni" section of the September 2024 issue of Omalius magazine.

As a child, warehouses and department store aisles were a favorite playground for former UNamur student Frank Mestdagh. Now part of the Intermarché Group, SA Mestdagh has been a key player in the Walloon and Brussels retail sectors for over a century. After completing his studies in economics and social sciences, Frank Mestdagh worked in a variety of fields, but eventually returned to the family DNA. "I took over a company that cut charcuterie for the mass retail sector, gradually realizing that the model didn't suit me", he recounts. It was at this point that he discovered Ferme du Sart (now Otera du Sart), a French chain specializing in local produce. "I thought it was really smart: you could feel the closeness to the producers, there were fewer denatured, over-marketed products. France was and remains very much ahead of the game when it comes to this type of trade, probably because of a sense of regional belonging, but also because there's a much larger fabric of producers and artisans." Frank Mestdagh then began to develop the D'ici stores project and opened his first store in Naninne in May 2013. Three years later, another store - now closed - saw the light of day in Hannut. "In retrospect, it was a mistake." In 2021, it's Wépion that finally welcomes a second successful outlet. 2025 will see the opening of a third store in Champion, still in the Namur region.

For Élisabeth Bois d'Enghien, entrepreneurship is also a family affair. "I have a father who is a company director and who was a bit of an example for me in terms of vision and management. I think I had something to prove to him by choosing this direction. " The woman who considers herself above all a generalist - "during a skills assessment, I was told that I could do just about anything, but that I'd never be an expert"will pursue a bachelor's degree in social sciences and management from UNamur, with a particular interest in courses in philo, socio, social sciences and history. "I wish I'd had today's maturity to grasp the interest of the subject," she analyzes. Whatever the case, Élisabeth Bois d'Enghien is convinced that it's less the diploma that makes the difference than "what you've got in your belly." In 2021, after a career start in telecommunications and a period of"bumbling around the world", she joins the D'ici store adventure. "What attracted me was the whole story Frank was telling, everything that goes beyond food, what it generates in terms of bonds between people."

For his part, Jérôme Bette, a graduate in management engineering from UNamur, worked for a long time in marketing for a clothing chain. "With all the problems of fast fashion that we know", comments the man who was looking for more meaning in his work. In 2022, he in turn joined D'ici stores. "I've found that the great strength of the project is that we're not extremist in our positioning. This allows us, little by little, to bring a less informed public towards something that makes sense," he comments. "Where, when the identity is very strong, it can be a hindrance." The brand has thus chosen local over organic. "I'd say that in terms of prices, we're around 10-15% more expensive than mass retailers, while remaining 10-15% cheaper than an organic chain," estimates Frank Mestdagh. For Jérôme Bette, the important thing is to work above all on quality and proximity. "It's not realistic to fight on price," he sums up. "Our wish is for the customer to understand that he's paying the right price and that it's the price he's paying elsewhere that isn't fair. When chicken is 3 euros a kilo, that's where the problem lies...". "The gamble will be won when everyone knows that we're doing local and not organic," adds Élisabeth Bois d'Enghien. "Because local means geographical proximity - with 50% of products coming from less than 50 km around - but also relational proximity. The producers, even if they come from further afield, we know their first names..." Even more than yesterday, Frank Mestdagh believes in the relevance of a very local anchoring in the Namur region. "Today, we have customers who are very attached to the concept, which gives us - as well as the producers - a great deal of trust capital," the founder enthuses.